Essential reading
Curated books on forecasting, decision-making under uncertainty, and the wisdom of crowds.
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Superforecasting
The defining book on forecasting accuracy. Tetlock's research shows how anyone can improve their predictions using structured thinking.
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The Signal and the Noise
Why most predictions fail — and some don't. Silver's masterwork on separating meaningful data from random noise.
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Thinking in Bets
Former poker champion Duke shows how to make smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts — exactly the skill prediction markets reward.
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The Wisdom of Crowds
The theoretical foundation for prediction markets. Why groups are often smarter than the smartest individual within them.
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Fooled by Randomness
The hidden role of chance in life and markets. Essential reading for anyone interpreting probability data.
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Noise
Why people making the same judgement often reach wildly different conclusions — and what prediction markets do to correct for this.
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Expert Political Judgment
The landmark study showing that expert political forecasters perform barely better than chance. The research that spawned Superforecasting.
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How Minds Change
Why people change their minds — and why they don't. Directly relevant to understanding how prediction market probabilities shift.
Buy on Amazon →The Signal and the Noise
Why most predictions fail — and some don't. Silver's masterwork on separating meaningful data from random noise.
Thinking in Bets
Former poker champion Duke shows how to make smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts — exactly the skill prediction markets reward.
The Wisdom of Crowds
The theoretical foundation for prediction markets. Why groups are often smarter than the smartest individual within them.
Fooled by Randomness
The hidden role of chance in life and markets. Essential reading for anyone interpreting probability data.
Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment
Why people making the same judgement often reach wildly different conclusions — and what prediction markets do to correct for this.
Expert Political Judgment
The landmark study showing that expert political forecasters perform barely better than chance. The research that spawned Superforecasting.
How Minds Change
Why people change their minds — and why they don't. Directly relevant to understanding how prediction market probabilities shift.